Why interest rates are rising in 2026: IRCC, payments and exchange rates

When people say money is becoming more expensive, the practical effect appears in new offers, variable-rate loan payments and refinancing costs.

In Romania, the 2026 discussion starts with market rates, the cost of funding in lei and foreign currencies, and exchange-rate pressure on borrowers who earn in one currency and repay in another.

The useful question is not whether rates will rise or fall next month.

What matters is whether the budget can withstand a higher payment, whether the offer has a competitive APR, and whether the loan currency matches the income currency.

How higher funding costs reach household loans

For a home purchase, the large balance and long term magnify a small percentage change. Offers and the comparison method are collected on our mortgage interest rate page.

Check the fixed period, the later formula and the costs connected with the collateral.

Consumer loans have shorter terms, while fees and insurance can strongly affect APR.

Our personal loan interest rate page compares offers for the same amount and term, including when you are looking for the lowest rate available for your profile.

What more expensive money means in practice

Banks and financial institutions do not set interest rates from zero. They fund lending, hold capital against risk and add a margin that varies by product and customer profile.

When market funding becomes more expensive, new offers tend to reflect that change. The transmission is neither immediate nor identical across products.

With a fixed-rate loan, the payment remains unchanged for the period stated in the agreement. A variable-rate formula usually combines a reference index with the lender's fixed margin.

The reset date matters: two agreements linked to the same index may feel the change in different months.

IRCC and ROBOR do not change every loan on the same day

IRCC applies to many consumer loans in lei granted to individuals after May 2019. It is based on actual interbank transactions and enters loan agreements with a delay. ROBOR remains relevant to some older agreements and other contractually defined products. Its daily movement can be tracked separately, but today's quote does not automatically become tomorrow's payment.

The agreement is decisive. It should state the index, margin, reset frequency and first review date. Our guide to how IRCC works explains why a market change may reach the borrower's payment later.

One percentage point can mean hundreds of lei each month

An indicative example shows the size of the risk. For RON 250,000 repaid over 25 years, a 7% annual rate produces a payment of about RON 1,767. At 8%, it rises to about RON 1,930. The difference is roughly RON 163 per month, before fees and insurance. The calculation uses equal instalments and is not a commercial offer.

The effect grows with large balances and long terms. For a mortgage, a change in the reference index may matter more than a small fee reduction. For a short-term personal loan, APR and upfront costs may carry more weight in the comparison.

Currency risk appears when income and payments use different currencies

A euro loan is not automatically cheaper for someone paid in lei. Even if the quoted rate looks lower, the amount needed in lei changes with EUR/RON. A EUR 500 payment costs RON 2,500 at an exchange rate of 5.00 and RON 2,650 at 5.30. The interest rate can stay unchanged while the monthly burden rises by RON 150.

Matching currencies is a simple form of protection: stable income in lei more naturally supports a loan in lei. Someone with recurring euro income may assess the risk differently. Our euro to leu exchange-rate page helps track conversions, but past rates cannot guarantee future levels.

Why the deficit and government funding can reach borrowers

The government, banks and companies seek funding in the same economy. When investors demand higher bond yields, market price benchmarks change. Banks do not mechanically copy government-debt yields into household contracts, but costs can pass through liquidity, expectations and the price of long-term funding.

Government borrowing in foreign currencies adds sensitivity to exchange rates and external interest rates. Households do not need to forecast the bond market. They need to avoid a payment calculated at the edge of the budget. An affordable loan should remain payable under a less favourable scenario.

Stress-test the budget before signing

A basic test takes three steps. Raise the interest rate by two percentage points, add every monthly cost and review the budget after the loan payment. If too little remains for unexpected expenses, the borrowed amount is probably too high even if the application could be approved.

Compare at least three figures: the monthly payment, APR and total amount payable. The payment shows immediate budget pressure. APR enables a standardised comparison. The total amount shows the full contract price if the loan is kept to maturity. None should be read alone.

A reserve covering three to six months of expenses reduces the risk that a change in income or rates quickly causes arrears. Without that reserve, borrowing less or delaying the loan may be worth more than receiving a quick approval.

Kreditano editorial note: "A payment approved at the limit of the budget does not become safe merely because it fits today's calculation. The money left after the payment matters as much as the amount the lender agrees to finance."

Fixed or variable interest in 2026

A fixed rate buys predictability for the guaranteed period. It may cost more initially, and the loan may switch to a variable formula when that period ends. Read the offer through the final payment in the simulation, not only to the end of the promotion.

A variable rate may become cheaper if the index falls, but it transfers the risk of an increase to the borrower. The choice depends on the safety margin in the budget, the loan term and the actual APR difference. A household with a tight budget may value predictability more than a possible but uncertain saving.

When refinancing helps and when it only moves the problem

Refinancing can reduce costs when the new rate and fees are low enough to recover the switching expenses. Extending the term can also lower the payment, but may increase the total amount paid.

Ask the lender for two simulations on the same balance: one with a term close to the remaining period and another with the desired monthly payment. Include analysis fees, valuation, insurance and any closing costs. The decision becomes clearer when you can see when accumulated savings exceed the initial expenses.

Loan-offer checklist

Before signing, check:
• the loan currency and income currency;
• the interest-rate type and fixed-period length;
• the index, margin and reset calendar;
• APR and the total amount payable;
• mandatory costs outside the basic payment;
• early-repayment conditions;
• the simulated payment at a rate two points higher.

A good offer is not the one with the lowest highlighted percentage. It is the one whose full cost remains affordable in the household's realistic scenario. Compare offers for the same amount and term. Otherwise, a lower payment may hide a longer term and a higher final cost.

What to watch in the coming months

For existing loans, watch the next contractual reset date and publication of the applicable index. For new offers, check APR, the gap between fixed and variable rates, and the conditions after the promotional period. Exchange rates matter most when income and debt are in different currencies.

NBR data on IRCC, ROBOR and lending in lei and foreign currencies provide reference points, not a personal forecast. A sound decision starts with the budget rather than an attempt to guess the market's next move.