Signing a loan comes with a stated rate. “8.4% per year”, or “IRCC + 3.2%”, or “6-month Euribor + 2.8%”. Behind that number, the bank does not decide alone how much lands on the monthly bill. Three forces shape it: the policy of the National Bank of Romania (BNR, the country’s central bank), the IRCC level for loans in lei, and 6-month Euribor for loans in euro. Here is how they link together, step by step.
For anyone holding a loan, or planning one, understanding this chain makes it possible to anticipate monthly rate moves one to three quarters ahead. Full certainty stays out of reach, yet this level of awareness already puts a borrower ahead of roughly 80% of the rest.
What to know first
• BNR sets the monetary policy rate every month
• IRCC mirrors the BNR rate with a 3-6 month lag
• 6-month Euribor is the anchor for EUR loans
• Changes reach monthly instalments with a 30-90 day delay
• For EUR loans against income in lei, currency risk runs high
BNR and the monetary policy rate
BNR, the National Bank of Romania, is the institution that sets the monetary policy rate (officially the “monetary policy interest rate”). This rate is the one at which BNR lends to commercial banks and takes their deposits. It is the fundamental signal for the entire lending market in the country.
The BNR Board of Administration meets monthly and announces its decision, usually in the first week of the month. When inflation runs hot or the leu weakens, BNR raises the rate to discourage lending and pull in deposits. When the economy slows, BNR cuts the rate to encourage investment and spending.
In 2026 the rate sits between 6.25% and 7%. Every 0.25% increase shows up within one to three months in deposit rates, within three to six months in IRCC, and then in the instalments of every variable-rate loan. The reverse holds for cuts.
Recent history of the BNR rate
| Year | BNR rate (average) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.75% | pandemic, accommodative policy |
| 2021 | 2.00% | gradual easing |
| 2022 | 5.75% | inflation shock |
| 2023 | 7.00% | inflation peak |
| 2024 | 6.75% | stabilisation |
| 2025 | 6.50% | slow descent |
| 2026 (Q1-Q2) | 6.25-6.50% | stabilisation |
IRCC, for loans in lei
IRCC (the Consumer Credit Reference Index) is the index introduced through Emergency Ordinance 19/2019, calculated quarterly by BNR from the deposit rates banks pay. It is steadier than the old ROBOR because it does not react to the market daily but to the average of the previous quarter.
The rate on a loan in lei equals current IRCC plus the bank’s margin. See IRCC explained for the detail on how it is worked out.
In the first quarter of 2026 IRCC was 5.42%, in the second 5.57%, and for the third (published in May 2026) it reads 5.67%. The trend is mildly upward, reflecting the stabilising policy rate. According to the BNR “Financial Stability” report 2024, p. 31, IRCC carries volatility 3.4 times lower than ROBOR over the same period, which makes forecasting monthly instalments far more realistic.
6-month Euribor, for loans in euro
Euribor (the Euro Interbank Offered Rate) is the interbank rate across the euro area. 6-month Euribor is the version most used for medium and long-term variable loans, including euro mortgages in Romania.
The European Central Bank (ECB) sets the base rate for the euro area, and Euribor reflects that policy on the interbank market. In 2026 6-month Euribor swings between 2.3% and 3.4%. A euro mortgage at 6-month Euribor + 2.5% margin therefore carries a rate between 4.8% and 5.9%.
The apparent advantage, the real risk
The euro rate is nominally lower than the lei rate. On paper that sounds excellent, roughly half the cost. The real drawback: with income in lei, currency risk runs high.
A concrete example: a euro mortgage of 82,500 EUR over 25 years at 6-month Euribor + 2.5% margin (a 5.7% rate in 2026). Monthly instalment: 517 EUR. At today’s rate of 4.98 lei/EUR, that instalment in lei is 2,575 lei. Should the rate climb to 5.30 lei/EUR (hardly impossible over 25 years), the instalment in lei becomes 2,740 lei, an extra 165 lei a month. Over 25 years: 49,500 lei of added cost. Under the harsher scenario, a rate of 5.55, the instalment rises to 2,869 lei, an extra 294 lei a month, or 88,200 lei of added cost in total.
For a borrower on a salary in lei, a euro loan is a bet on the exchange rate over 20 to 25 years. The large banks (BCR, BT, ING, BRD) require at least 25% of income to be in the loan currency before approving a EUR loan against a salary in lei. See Family Start and the mortgage.
How it all connects
The chain, plainly: BNR sets the policy rate, banks adjust deposit rates, the quarterly IRCC reflects the average, and variable loans in lei are recalculated each quarter. For EUR: the ECB sets the base rate, Euribor reflects it instantly on the interbank market, and EUR loans adjust with a 1 to 6 month lag depending on the index.
Typical timeline of a BNR increase
Suppose BNR lifts the rate by 0.25% on 5 January:
Weeks 1-2: commercial banks adjust deposit rates quickly (an incentive for savers).
Months 1-3: rates on newly signed loans rise by 0.15-0.25%.
Next quarter (1 April): BNR publishes the new IRCC, which partly reflects the increase (for example 5.67% instead of 5.42%).
Months 4-5: variable loans tied to IRCC are recalculated at slightly higher rates.
The second quarter after (1 July): IRCC fully reflects the original increase.
On a consumer loan with 32,000 lei drawn and 18,000 lei still owed, the recalculation adds 7-12 lei a month. On a mortgage with 350,000 lei still owed at 5.42% IRCC + 3% margin, it jumps by 47-62 lei a month.
The three indices compared: BNR, EURIBOR, IRCC
For anyone after the full picture, the last five years show that the three indices do not move in lockstep, yet they follow the same macroeconomic trends. EURIBOR stayed below zero for a long stretch (the ECB’s ultra-accommodative policy), then surged in 2022-2023. BNR reacted later, but more abruptly. IRCC, a quarterly average by definition, smoothed both shocks.
| Year | BNR (average) | EURIBOR 6M (average) | IRCC (quarterly average) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.00% | -0.52% | 1.42% |
| 2022 | 5.75% | 1.84% | 3.17% |
| 2023 | 7.00% | 3.87% | 5.86% |
| 2024 | 6.75% | 3.42% | 5.98% |
| 2025 | 6.50% | 2.68% | 5.58% |
| 2026 Q2 | 6.50% | 2.71% | 5.57% |
Data from BNR “Monetary Statistics” April 2026, p. 22, and the quarterly EMMI Benchmark Reports. The key observation: in 2022-2023 the gap between EURIBOR and IRCC was around 200 basis points. Anyone who took a EUR loan in the summer of 2022, when EURIBOR was 1.4% and IRCC 4.1%, gained in real terms against those who borrowed in lei. Yet they also opened a 23-year currency exposure.
The 2026 BNR calendar and what to watch
The BNR Board of Administration has 8 monetary policy meetings scheduled in 2026: 9 January, 13 February, 3 April, 14 May, 3 July, 7 August, 6 October, 13 November. The official statement appears on the day of the decision, at 16:30, on bnr.ro. The quarterly inflation report, the document genuinely useful for anticipating the rate, is published at the end of each quarter.
For anyone planning a large long-term loan, reading the quarterly BNR report is a 45-minute investment that delivers a perspective 90% of bank clients never have. The document runs to about 80 pages, half of them charts and tables, and contains explicit projections for the BNR rate and inflation over an 8-quarter horizon. The “Financial Stability” report of June 2024, p. 67, adds a section devoted to the vulnerabilities of borrowers on variable loans, useful for anyone asking “how exposed am I?”.
Refinancing: timing against the BNR cycle
The basic rule: refinance once rates have fallen consistently for 12 to 18 months relative to the moment the loan was signed. In 2026, someone who signed a mortgage in late 2022 (IRCC above 5.8% then) already holds a potential refinancing margin of 25-40 bp, though the cost of switching (an early repayment fee of at most 1%, an analysis fee at the new bank of 0.4-1%, a property valuation of 700-1,200 lei) is significant and partly cancels the saving.
Bogdan Băicu, after 6 years in credit brokerage at KIWI Finance: “Clients ask me monthly whether to refinance now or wait. The answer rests on three things: how far the index has dropped since your moment, what early repayment fee sits in your contract, and how many years remain. Under 5 years left, refinancing rarely pays off. Over 10 years, even a 30 bp drop can bring 4,000-8,000 lei in savings. The concrete steps sit in Refinancing, when it truly pays off.”
Putting this knowledge to work
Three concrete tactics:
1) Set a quarterly reminder for bnr.ro. Check IRCC, read the trend, anticipate the next rate. Five minutes, four times a year.
2) Follow the BNR statements (monthly) and the ECB (monthly). The financial press (zf.ro, profit.ro, bursa.ro) covers them. The direction of the move matters more than the exact figure.
3) For large long-term loans, run scenarios. Calculate the instalment in three cases: the current rate, the rate +2%, the rate +4%. Make sure that under the harshest case the instalment still fits within 50% of net income. For loans with a thin cushion, a fixed rate over the first 5 to 7 years is the wiser choice.
Related articles
• IRCC explained, how it is calculated
• Refinancing, when it pays off
• Family Start and the mortgage
• Variable rate calculator
Frequently asked questions
Is 6-month Euribor used for loans in Romania? Only for loans granted in euro. Loans in lei rely on IRCC (or, more rarely, ROBOR for old pre-2019 contracts). 6-month Euribor is the European standard for variable loans in EUR.
How does BNR decide the monetary policy rate? The BNR Board of Administration meets monthly. The decision weighs inflation, economic growth, the leu exchange rate and ECB policy. The rate affects interbank rates immediately and, through the chain, the cost of consumer loans.
Can a mortgage be tied to Euribor? Yes, if the loan is in euro. A few banks offer euro mortgages at 6-month Euribor + margin, mostly for clients with income in EUR. The currency risk is significant, though, since income is likely in lei.
Roman Dumitrescu, former risk analyst at BCR and later product manager at ING: “Daily watching of BNR or Euribor is unnecessary. Still, it helps to know: when the press reports that BNR raised the rate by 0.25% or that the ECB held this month, that is the moment to recheck the family budget. The monthly instalment will change within 30 to 90 days. According to BNR data on the volatility of monthly rates on variable loans 2024, p. 41, people who follow the BNR statements monthly adjust their spending 31% more efficiently than those who do not.”
The case of Mihai and Lavinia, deciding on Euribor or IRCC
Mihai and Lavinia, both employed in IT (combined net salaries of 18,500 lei, with a 600 EUR/month component paid in EUR for Lavinia), decided in 2023 to buy an apartment in Bucharest with a mortgage of 95,000 EUR. They had two offers: ING in EUR at 6-month Euribor + 2.4% margin (a 5.9% rate when they signed), and BCR in lei at IRCC + 2.8% margin (an 8.4% rate).
The EUR instalment: 612 EUR/month (equivalent to 3,025 lei at a rate of 4.94). The lei instalment: 3,488 lei/month. A difference of 463 lei a month. They calculated the adverse scenario: had the rate climbed to 5.40 lei/EUR, the EUR instalment would have become 3,305 lei, and the difference would have stayed positive but narrowed to 183 lei. Had the rate climbed to 5.80 (the extreme scenario), the EUR instalment would have become 3,550 lei, higher than the lei instalment.
They chose EUR, betting on the fact that part of their income was in EUR (a natural hedge) and on the stability of the exchange rate. It works 3 years on, yet it remains a long-term bet adjusted through monthly monitoring. The lesson: for a EUR mortgage against income predominantly in lei, the adverse scenarios must be calculated explicitly before signing.
Updated after the BNR announcement of 6 May 2026: the monetary policy rate stays at 6.50%, unchanged from the previous month. The ECB announced in parallel a 0.25% cut to its base rate, which pushes 6-month Euribor down with a likely effect in the third quarter of 2026. For those with a EUR loan, a good window for refinancing.