How the ROBOR calculation could change in 2026

The procedure used to set ROBOR may be revised following the Romanian Competition Council’s decision about banks’ conduct during the fixing window.

The debate concerns the information visible to participants before the benchmark is published.

The NBR has not yet published a new formula.

For borrowers whose contracts refer to ROBOR, the distinction between a proposal and an adopted rule matters. A procedural change does not automatically lower the index or immediately rewrite a loan payment.

What may change in the ROBOR fixing

Information from the banking market points to a possible limit on visibility during the fixing. Each participating bank could submit its quotation without seeing competitors’ offers.

The purpose would be to reduce the possibility of quotations being aligned.

Another option under discussion is a procedure closer to the one used for the exchange-rate reference, drawing on market information and transactions. Until the NBR publishes a regulation or an official draft, these remain scenarios rather than applicable rules.

The claim that “60% of ROBOR will change” is not a mathematical formula. It describes an estimate of how much of the regulation may be amended, not the future direction of the rate.

Why the fixing drew the authority’s attention

In June 2026, the Competition Council announced fines totalling 3.73 billion lei for ten banks, alleging coordinated conduct during the ROBOR fixing period. The banks rejected the allegations and said they would challenge the sanctions.

The case concerns the participants’ behaviour. It does not cancel ROBOR values that have already been published.

At the centre of the dispute is access to other banks’ quotations before the benchmark is fixed. The authority argues that this visibility may let participants adjust their positions to competitors. The banking industry says that market transparency does not prove an agreement.

Both positions are separate from the borrower’s practical questions: which benchmark is written into the contract, and when is the interest rate revised?

How ROBOR is currently calculated

ROBOR is the rate at which participating banks offer leu funds to other banks. The NBR publishes maturities ranging from overnight to twelve months.

Loan contracts commonly refer to three-month or six-month ROBOR.

Quotations are firm during the fixing window and extreme values are removed before the average is calculated. The present debate concerns the stage at which participants enter and see quotations.

The current official values are available on the ROBOR today page, with the reference date and recent history.

What a change could mean for a ROBOR-linked loan

A new method could influence future quotations, but limiting visibility alone does not reveal the direction. Liquidity, monetary policy, inflation and demand for lei would continue to matter.

A loan payment is not rewritten on the day a new regulation appears.

The contract specifies the benchmark, the bank’s fixed margin and the revision frequency. If the formula is ROBOR 3M plus a 2.5 percentage-point margin, the bank applies the benchmark according to the contractual review date. The margin does not disappear if the benchmark methodology changes.

Roman Dumitrescu, financial analyst: “A procedure that is harder for participants to anticipate may strengthen confidence in the fixing, but it does not promise a lower rate. Borrowers need the published value and the date on which their contract takes it into account.”

You can test a change with the mortgage calculator by entering the total interest rate: benchmark plus margin. The result is an estimate and does not replace the bank’s repayment schedule.

IRCC is not calculated from ROBOR

A common misconception is that IRCC copies daily ROBOR quotations. GEO 19/2019 created a different rule: the daily index uses eligible interbank money-market transactions weighted by volume, and the quarterly value averages daily rates from the relevant quarter.

ROBOR starts from quotations; IRCC starts from eligible transactions.

A change to the ROBOR fixing therefore does not mechanically alter the IRCC formula. The two benchmarks may react to the same market conditions, but they are built and applied differently. The ROBOR versus IRCC guide explains the distinction, while the IRCC page shows the applied value and period.

Who may be affected

Borrowers are directly exposed only when their contract expressly names ROBOR. New leu consumer loans granted after GEO 19/2019 normally use IRCC instead.

The year in which a loan was signed is not enough on its own.

Some contracts have fixed rates, foreign-currency benchmarks or later amendments. Check the addendum and latest repayment schedule before drawing a conclusion from the signature date.

If the payment becomes difficult to sustain, compare the total cost of refinancing with the outstanding balance and remaining term. Extending the term may lower the monthly payment while increasing the total repaid.

What to watch next

The decisive document will be the NBR text defining the participants, fixing window, quotation visibility and treatment of extreme values.

The effective date will be equally important.

It must also be clarified whether the new procedure keeps the historical series and the existing 3M and 6M maturities. Until then, the accurate conclusion is that the method may change, not that loan rates will fall. Kreditano will update this analysis when an official regulation or draft is published.

The current value and recent series are available on the ROBOR today page, with the official NBR date.